Worldview Article on Turkey out

As some of you, know, I write a periodic series on emerging markets for the New York Society of Security Analyst’s journal “The Investment Professional,” which has been converted into a newsletter/blog format, now called “The Finance Professionals’ Post.”

Last week, part 2 of a two-piece discussion of Turkey came out on the list. Part one discusses the economic context of Turkey; and Part two discusses its investment characteristics. The main conclusion is that the impressive growth story of Turkey is real and likely to continue, but that the volatility is such that the market is likely already close to fairly priced. Turkey’s equity performance is not quite up to BRIC levels, but it does outperform markets in its region. Remember, however, that inflation continues to be high, even if no longer at earlier quasi-hyperinflationary levels, and this implies that the impressive local returns need to be adjusted downward to account for expected currency weakening. The resulting returns are still attractive, and more realistic.